MBC Monte Carlo: Mathematical Proof of Impact
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Impact Investing 2 min read

MBC Monte Carlo: Mathematical Proof of Impact

MB
Maputo Bridge Capital
Maputo Bridge Capital

MBC Monte Carlo: Mathematical Proof of Impact

No African agri-fintech has ever published computational impact proof. Apollo raised $88 million without mathematical proof. ThriveAgric raised millions with marketing slides.

MBC ran a Monte Carlo simulation: 200,000 farmer-years (500 farmers x 10 years x 2 scenarios x 20 iterations).

Results:

  • 3.2x income multiplier ($584 to $1,894/year)
  • 2.9x wealth multiplier ($2,039 to $5,937)
  • Poverty rate: 76% to 24.1% (-51.9 percentage points)
  • Middle class: 4.7% to 32.3%
  • 100% repayment rate
  • Credit scores: 300 to 750
  • GDP uplift at 1M farmer scale: $1.31 billion/year (7.7% of Mozambique GDP)

Plus game theory: Nash Equilibrium analysis proving MBC incentive design shifts from poverty trap to optimal outcome.

No competitor has this. MBC has mathematical proof.

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Monte Carlo simulation agricultureimpact prooffarmer income simulationNash equilibriumgame theory agriculturecomputational impactpoverty reduction Africa

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