The Problem: 3 Billion People Without Credit
Globally, 3 billion people have no credit history. They have never had a bank account, never taken a formal loan, and never been scored by a credit bureau. In Mozambique, 95% of the economy is informal, meaning 9.5 million farmers are invisible to the financial system. Maputo Bridge Capital (MBC), founded by Anselmo Boaventura in Fort Worth, Texas, connects sponsors with verified smallholder farmers in Mozambique to bridge this gap, working specifically with the COJAZ cooperative in Zambezia.
Traditional banks require:
- A bank account
- A credit history
- Collateral (property, vehicle)
- Payslips or tax returns
- A formal business registration
Mozambican smallholder farmers have none of these. They have land, crops, a mobile phone, and a cooperative. But they cannot access formal credit.
The Solution: Satellite Credit Scoring
MBC has developed an alternative credit scoring system that uses six data sources, including satellite imagery, to generate a 300-850 credit score for unbanked farmers. This model acts as a research direction for how technology can be leveraged to empower agriculture. A sponsor gives from $25, which goes directly to the farmer's local seed and fertilizer shop. The sponsor then receives the receipt and field photos. These sponsorships are gifts, not investments, and are not tax-deductible. 92% of funds go to the seed and fertilizer shop; 8% covers field verification and documentation. After harvest, farmers repay into a Community Fund to support the next farmer.
The Six Factors
1. Satellite NDVI (25% weight)
The European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellite flies over every farm every 5 days. It captures multispectral imagery at 10-meter resolution and calculates NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). This technology helps monitor field health and verifies actual crop growth.
NDVI measures vegetation density:
- 0.2-0.4 = bare soil, minimal vegetation
- 0.4-0.6 = sparse crops, early growth
- 0.6-0.8 = healthy, dense crops
- 0.8+ = very dense vegetation
For MBC's COJAZ cooperative in Zambézia:
- Current NDVI: 0.251 (September — dry season)
- Historical average: 0.394
- Expected rainy season: 0.6-0.8
2. Mobile Money Activity (25% weight)
Mozambique has three mobile money networks: M-Pesa (Vodacom), e-Mola (Movitel), and mKesh (Tmcel). Together they serve 25 million accounts processing $35 billion annually. MBC utilizes transaction frequency, average volume, and consistency of inflows to analyze financial patterns.
3. Weather Risk (15% weight)
Using the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API, MBC fetches:
- 30-day rainfall totals
- Historical rainfall comparison
- Temperature averages
- Drought event frequency
- Cyclone proximity
For COJAZ in Zambézia:
- 30-day rainfall: 27mm (rainy season starting)
- Historical average: matching
- Temperature: 23.7°C average
- Weather score: 80/100
4. Farm Profile (20% weight)
Each farmer's farm characteristics include:
- Farm size (hectares)
- Years farming experience
- Crop types
- Cooperative membership
- Verification status
COJAZ founding members score 100/100 on farm profile (11.4 hectares, 5 years farming, cooperative members, verified).
5. Repayment History (10% weight)
Previous loan repayment behavior is tracked through:
- Total funded
- Total repaid
- Repayment rate
- On-time payment history
For first-cycle farmers, the score starts at 50/100 and improves with each successful repayment into the community cycle.
6. Community Verification (5% weight)
Verification by a trusted local agent involves:
- Identity verified (BI/NUIT document scan)
- Land boundaries confirmed
- Crop types verified
- Cooperative membership confirmed
COJAZ members were verified by Anselmo Boaventura, scoring 100/100.
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The Score
COJAZ founding members currently score 608/850 (Grade C):
| Factor | Score | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite NDVI | 25/100 | 25% | 6.25 |
| Mobile Money | 30/100 | 25% | 7.50 |
| Weather Risk | 80/100 | 15% | 12.00 |
| Farm Profile | 100/100 | 20% | 20.00 |
| Repayment History | 50/100 | 10% | 5.00 |
| Community Verification | 100/100 | 5% | 5.00 |
| Total | 55.75 → 608 |
How Scores Will Improve
| Factor | Current | How to Improve | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDVI | 25/100 | Rainy season (Nov-Mar) | 70-80/100 |
| Mobile Money | 30/100 | First M-Pesa transactions | 60-70/100 |
| Weather | 80/100 | Continue good conditions | 80/100 |
| Farm Profile | 100/100 | Already maxed | 100/100 |
| Repayment | 50/100 | First loan + repayment | 70-80/100 |
| Community | 100/100 | Already maxed | 100/100 |
| Projected Score | 608 | After rainy season + first loan | 700+ (Grade B) |
The Loan Terms
Based on credit assessment data, the following guidelines help evaluate smallholder agricultural productivity potential for our partners at the COJAZ cooperative in Zambezia:
| Grade | Score | Max Potential Input | Term |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 720+ | $1,000 | 6 months |
| B | 650-719 | $500 | 6 months |
| C | 550-649 | $500 | 4 months |
| D | Below 550 | N/A | N/A |
COJAZ members at Grade C represent a significant shift from local informal arrangements, which often charge 50-100% premiums for inputs.
Self-Learning Credit Model
MBC's credit model is self-improving, utilizing advanced data science to better serve farmers. Using L1-regularized logistic regression, the model trains on repayment outcomes to refine its accuracy:
- When a harvest cycle is completed successfully, the model learns which factors predicted success.
- When a crop failure occurs, the model learns which factors predicted that outcome.
- Weights are adjusted automatically.
- The updated model is stored in the CreditModelWeights entity.
- Only deploys if accuracy improves by at least 2%.
This means the credit scoring system gets smarter with every cycle, helping ensure that sponsorships reach farmers who are most likely to have a successful season.
Impact on the Farmer's Season
For a smallholder farmer in Mozambique, this technology means the difference between a missed planting window and a timely start. By using satellite NDVI imagery and historical data, the system helps identify the right timing for seed and fertilizer application. This ensures that the farmer receives the necessary inputs via local shops exactly when they are needed for the season, reducing risk and improving potential yields.
Frequently asked questions
What is NDVI data? NDVI stands for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. It is a measurement derived from satellite imagery that indicates the health and density of vegetation on a plot of land.
How do satellites help unbanked farmers? Satellites provide objective, verifiable data about a farm's productivity and growth without requiring the farmer to have a formal bank account or historical credit record.
Why is data accuracy important for cooperatives? Accurate data helps cooperatives like COJAZ better allocate resources and understand the specific needs of their members based on real-time field performance.
Conclusion
Satellite credit scoring is not science fiction. It is operational today. The Sentinel-2 satellite is flying over Mozambican farms right now. The NDVI data is being processed, and mobile money transactions are being analyzed.
No bank account is needed, and no collateral is required. Just a satellite, a mobile phone, and a cooperative. You can help provide these essential inputs by choosing to sponsor a farmer starting from $25. Please note that these sponsorships are gifts, not investments, and they are not tax-deductible.