The Drought That Dried a Nation: Cahora Bassa at 19%

In January 2025, the Cahora Bassa dam — Africa's largest hydroelectric facility, located on the Zambezi River in Mozambique — dropped to 19% of its storage capacity. This event marks the lowest level in 30 years and signifies a catastrophic agricultural crisis across the Zambezi basin, resulting in failed harvests and widespread food insecurity.

19% and Its Consequences

The drop to 19% of storage capacity had severe implications for the region:

• Reduced electricity generation: Mozambique exports hydropower to South Africa and Zimbabwe; lower levels meant reduced national revenue.
• Drought confirmation: The dam's level serves as a proxy for rainfall, indicating that the rains failed across the entire basin.
• Agricultural crisis: The lack of water for irrigation and rain-fed agriculture devastated food production.
• Food insecurity spike: Failed harvests directly lead to increased hunger among rural populations.

The Drought That Precedes the Flood

The climate reality for Mozambique involves a volatile cycle where severe drought is often followed by sudden, destructive floods. This El Niño-La Niña whiplash creates a cycle where crops fail due to dryness and are subsequently destroyed by floods, leaving farmers with no time to recover between seasons.

What Drought Does to a Family

A drought doesn't just mean less rain. It means:

1. Seeds don't germinate: Farmers plant, nothing comes up, and seeds are wasted.
2. Crops wither: What does germinate dies before maturity.
3. Water sources dry up: Rivers, wells, and boreholes stop flowing.
4. Livestock dies: Animals lack pasture and water.
5. Food prices spike: The limited food available becomes unaffordable.
6. Families migrate: Men often leave for the city, leaving women and children behind.
7. Children drop out of school: They are often needed to help find food and water.

Impact on the Farmer's Season

For a smallholder farmer in Zambezia, these drought patterns dictate the entire agricultural calendar. When rains fail or arrive too late, the initial investment in seeds and fertilizer is lost entirely. Farmers are forced to prioritize survival over production, often depleting their limited resources and reducing the next season's potential, as they cannot afford inputs for the following cycle.

The 30-Year Low

Cahora Bassa at 19% is a clear signal that the environment is shifting. Research indicates that average precipitation in Mozambique has decreased by 3.1% per decade since 1960. Furthermore, the number of consecutive dry days is increasing, with projections suggesting that by 2100, Niassa province could see 21.4 additional dry days per year compared to pre-industrial levels.

Future Technologies for Drought Resilience

To combat these climate shifts, research into future agricultural strategies focuses on several key areas:

• Drought-resistant seeds: Varieties that mature faster and require less water to reach harvest.
• Index-based crop insurance: Utilizing satellite rainfall data to trigger support when rainfall drops below critical levels.
• Irrigation technology: Solar-powered pumps that reduce dependence on erratic rainfall patterns.
• Crop diversification: Encouraging the planting of drought-tolerant staples like cassava alongside maize.
• Mobile money emergency funds: Developing systems to ensure financial support arrives during the drought, rather than after the damage is done.

Related guide: Climate-smart agriculture in Mozambique: 6 technologies helping farmers beat drought, floods and cyclones

Frequently asked questions

What causes the Cahora Bassa dam levels to drop? The dam levels are largely dependent on rainfall in the Zambezi basin; when the rains fail, the water supply drops.

How does climate change affect Mozambique's rainfall? Average precipitation in the country has decreased by 3.1% per decade since 1960, and the number of consecutive dry days is increasing.

Why does drought affect school attendance? During periods of severe drought, children are often removed from school to assist their families in searching for food and water.

Maputo Bridge Capital, founded by Anselmo Boaventura in Fort Worth, Texas, works with the COJAZ cooperative in Zambezia to connect sponsors with verified smallholder farmers. When you give from $25, your money goes directly to the farmer's local seed and fertilizer shop, and you receive the receipt and field photos. 92% of your contribution goes to the shop, while 8% covers verification and documentation. After harvest, farmers repay into a Community Fund to help the next farmer. You can sponsor a farmer here. Please note that sponsorships are gifts, not investments, and are not tax-deductible.