The El Niño-La Niña whiplash creates a cycle of extreme weather in Mozambique, where the oscillation between drought and flooding leaves smallholder farmers in permanent uncertainty. By understanding these climate patterns, we can better support the agricultural resilience necessary to ensure families in regions like Zambezia do not face chronic hunger.
The Whiplash
In 2023-2024, El Niño brought severe drought to Mozambique. Crops failed. The Cahora Bassa dam dropped to 19% capacity. Families went hungry.
In 2025-2026, La Niña brought intense floods and cyclones. Crops were destroyed. Homes were washed away. Families went hungry again.
The same families. The same fields. Different disasters. Same outcome: hunger.
What El Niño Does
During El Niño years:
- Southern and central Mozambique experience drought
- Rainfall drops 20-40% below normal
- Crops fail — seeds don't germinate, plants wither
- The Zambezi River drops — Cahora Bassa dam levels fall
- Food prices spike as supply drops
- Families migrate — men leave for cities, women and children stay behind
- Livestock dies from lack of pasture and water
What La Niña Does
During La Niña years:
- Mozambique experiences above-average rainfall
- Cyclones make landfall more frequently and with greater intensity
- Rivers flood — the Zambezi, Limpopo, and Save all overflow
- Crops are destroyed by floodwater
- Homes and infrastructure are damaged
- Cholera and malaria outbreaks follow the floods
- Families are displaced
The Impossible Choice
For a farmer, El Niño and La Niña create an impossible choice:
- If you plant early — you might catch the first rains, but if it's an El Niño year, the rains stop and your crop dies
- If you plant late — you might avoid an early drought, but if it's a La Niña year, the rains are heavy and your crop floods
- If you don't plant — you have no harvest and your family goes hungry either way
There is no right answer when the climate is unpredictable. The only solution is resilience — the ability to survive whatever comes.
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Impact on the Farmer's Season
For a smallholder farmer working with cooperatives like COJAZ in Zambezia, these weather cycles dictate every aspect of the growing season. An unpredictable climate forces farmers to gamble with limited resources, as seed and fertilizer investments are lost if the timing of rainfall shifts unexpectedly. Resilience means having access to drought-resistant seeds and secure, elevated storage that can protect the harvest regardless of whether the season brings parched earth or catastrophic flooding.
Future Technologies for Resilience
Research into climate resilience suggests powerful potential tools for the future of agriculture. Technologies such as satellite imagery can provide early warning systems for soil moisture levels and flood tracking, while blockchain-enabled transparent supply chains could track inputs for farmers. Further development in localized weather data could allow for precision farming, while advanced seed technology could create varieties specifically adapted to these extreme regional swings.
Related guide: Climate-smart agriculture in Mozambique: 6 technologies helping farmers beat drought, floods and cyclones
Frequently asked questions
Q: What happens to food supply during El Niño? A: Food prices spike as the drop in rainfall leads to widespread crop failure.
Q: Why does flooding cause secondary health issues? A: Outbreaks of diseases like cholera and malaria often follow severe flooding events.
Q: Why do families migrate during drought? A: When crops fail and livestock die, men often leave for cities in search of work, leaving women and children behind.
Maputo Bridge Capital, founded by Anselmo Boaventura in Fort Worth, Texas, connects sponsors with verified smallholder farmers like those in the COJAZ cooperative in Zambezia. A sponsor gives from $25, which goes directly to the farmer's local seed and fertilizer shop; the sponsor then receives the receipt and field photos. These sponsorships are gifts, not investments, and are not tax-deductible. After harvest, farmers repay into a Community Fund to support the next season. You can sponsor a farmer from $25 here.